MLS

(209877) Inter Miami at (209878) Columbus Crew

I love taking home sides during midweek matches or the weekend following them as MLS teams struggle with away matches in general, but on short rest, makes it that much worse.

While Miami has proven they are one of a few teams that can overcome it, at some point their actual goal scoring will come back down compared to their xG data.  They are scoring 2.3 goals per game on 1.5 xG, easily the biggest overperformance in the league.  Now, that is expected when you have the best player in the world, as that is what makes him the best, he can score more than the averages, but midweek games are always a concern for Messi to even play.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him start on the bench here.  

More concerning, Miami set atop the conference, but with a negative xG differential of -0.02 which ranks 18th in the league.

Columbus is #3 at +0.37 per match and they too have one of the most lethal attacks in the league.  This will be a big match for the Crew and the fans will have that place rocking.  I like them to grab the win here and this is a great price to do so.

TAKE COLUMBUS ML or -0.5

Line Parameter: 4% to -125, 3% to -140 or -0.75