Rosenborg vs Molde
Norway, Sunday, 11am ET

Play: 3% Rosenborg PK (or Draw no Bet)
Odds at Time of Release: -138
Line Parameter: Playable to -145

Big derby in Norway between Rosenborg and Molde, with Rosenborg being in really good form right at the moment. They are playing host to Molde, who have been distracted by their European matches and just played a tough match in Sweden on Thursday. 

Rosenborg are coming off a 3-1 win on the road against Odd and have now won 3 in a row and 4 of L/5, while losing just 1 of 6 after the break (W4 D1 L1), and that loss came on the road. They are on a 6-match unbeaten streak at home (W5 D1), beating Lillestrom, Viking, Tromso and Fredrikstad in that span. They have a +0.40 xG difference/game at home. 

Molde are coming off a tough elimination from the Europa League on Thursday, as they did beat Elfsborg by 1-0 in regular time to send the match to extra time, and then lost in the penalty shootout. They will still play European soccer in the Conference League, but they just played 120+ minutes of soccer just a few days ago (and also had to travel back from Sweden). Tired legs, a couple of injuries and generally not doing that well on the road as of late, mainly due to their European matches, having won just 2 of L/6 (W2 D1 L3). Molde have a +0.27 xG difference/game on the road.

The two teams played for a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture, while last season Rosenborg were unbeaten against Molde (3-1 win at home, 1-1 draw on the road). They have been quite hard to beat as hosts against Molde in the last decade, losing just 1 of L/9 (W6 D2 L1). 

If this weren't such a big derby I would take Rosenborg as a 4-5%, but now we will just go with 3% on Rosenborg to not lose. They actually played really well in the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture on the road and they are now catching Molde tired (and maybe a bit disappointed) from their Thursday match. 

Take 3u on Rosenborg PK (-138), which is the same bet as Rosenborg Draw no Bet. Make sure to shop around because odds are different.