Bolivia vs Venezuela
World Cup Qualifiers, Thursday, 6pm ET

Play: 4% Over 2.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, otherwise take 3% on the Over 2.5 Goals

Round 7 of the South American World Cup Qualifiers, with Bolivia playing host to Venezuela on Thursday, in the altitudes of El Alto in Bolivia (13,615 feet). Playing in that altitude is always really hard for teams, and Bolivia are smart enough to use the El Alto Stadium that is one of the highest-altitude stadiums in the world. Visiting teams are always suffering in these conditions.

Bolivia are sitting 9th in the 10-team qualifying group with 3 points (W1 D0 L5), scoring 4 goals and conceding 14 in the process, which is by far the worst defense and the worst goal difference. Venezuela have done an excellent job so far, sitting 4th with 9 points (W2 D3 L1), scoring 6 and conceding 3 goals, and are currently inside the qualifying spots. The top 6 teams will qualify to the 2026 World Cup, and the 7th team will play an intercontinental playoff match with a team from another federation. 

Bolivia haven’t been in a World Cup since 1994, and we shouldn’t write them off just yet, as they are just 2 points behind the last qualifying spot. Slim chances, but they are always very competitive at home, and they will surely try to see out their chances. After this match they are travelling away to Chile, who are underperforming in these qualifiers, so if Bolivia get a result against Venezuela and something off their match at Chile, they could make a case for qualifying. 

Venezuela have a tough couple of matches right after this one, hosting Uruguay and then Argentina, so they are definitely looking for some points here. 

This is going to be a very competitive match, and we are looking at goals. Bolivia not only need to win but also to improve their goal difference, which is the first tiebreaker in these qualifiers. They know that they have close to zero chances getting results on the road, so this is probably one of the easiest matches they have left on home ground. As for Venezuela, this is also one of the easiest matches they have left, albeit in the altitudes of El Alto, which is not going to be easy. But Venezuela have grown exponentially in recent years, and they definitely like their chances of finishing in the top-6, so they will try to get some points. 

Matches between these two have always produced a LOT of goals, with an 8-0 run to the Over 3.5 Goals over the last decade. And I expect something similar on Thursday, as Bolivia not only need a win, but also goals to improve their goal difference, and Venezuela are pressed by the fact that they are hosting the two best teams right after this match (Uruguay and Argentina). 

Take 4u on the Over 2.25 Goals (-120), playable to -130