Houston vs LAFC
MLS, Saturday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Houston -0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Two teams that also met last week in LA will lock horns again on Saturday, this time in Houston, as the Dynamo will play host to a depleted LAFC side. Houston won last week in LA by a clean 2-0, in a match where LAFC were at full health. 

Houston have now won 3 of L/4 against LAFC, and have lost just 2 of L/8 H2H matches (W4 L2 D2). In fact, Houston have lost just 1 of 6 home matches against LAFC over the years (W2 L1 D3), with both wins coming in the two most recent matches in this venue (in 2023 and 2022). 

This time around, LAFC have a big personnel problem, as their entire starting offense is missing (Bouanga, Bogusz, Olivera and backup Martinez), along with defenders Chanot and Campos, with Jesus Murillo listed as Game Time Decision.

LAFC only have a couple of available forwards, pretty good on paper, as Kei Kamara and Olivier Giroud are still there, but these two have a combined 77 years of age (Kei Kamara is 40 and Giroud is 37), and even though with age comes experience, they also have a LOT of years of wear and tear under those legs. LAFC can field a competitive lineup, but they will have VERY limited options off the bench. 

And if LAFC lost AT HOME to Houston just days ago with a full lineup, then they should have a tough time playing on the road with so many absent players. And Houston know that a win here would most likely solidify a playoff ticket, so they have a great opportunity to take advantage of the situation and get a win. Also note that Houston were eliminated early from the Leagues Cup and have played just 4 matches in the last month, while LAFC have played 7 matches in that span.

And, after all, Houston have a +0.48 xG difference/game at home, while LAFC have a +0.18 xG difference/game on the road, so that’s another reason why we like Houston in this spot. 

Now, the Asian Spread is set at 0.25 and we are taking Houston -0.25, which is a split line between Houston -0.5 and Houston PK. If this match ends in a draw we still get half our stake back. 

Take 4u on Houston -0.25 (-125), playable to -140, otherwise take 2u on Houston ML