Uruguay vs Paraguay
World Cup Qualifiers, Friday, 7:30pm ET

Play: Luis Suarez to score anytime
Odds at Time of Release: +120
Line Parameter: Playable to -110

Uruguay are hosting Paraguay for Round 7 of the South American World Cup Qualifiers, in a special match for a lot of reasons. I don't agree with Uruguay's favouritism in this spot, they are -215 favourites, the draw is at +300 and Paraguay are +650 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 1 and the Asian Total set at 2.25 Goals. 

Under different circumstances, Uruguay -1 would be a big play for me (and the odds would probably be different, to be honest). But they are missing a TON of players, mostly starters, for various reasons (suspensions, injuries), with Araujo, Betancur, Gimenez, Olivera and Nunez all being suspended for the aftermath of that match against Colombia, while Arascaeta, De la Cruz and Vina are injured. They still have some good quality in that squad, but missing all these players is not something you want in a -215 favourite. 

Another storyline is the unfortunate death of Nacional's Izquierdo last week after a match in the Copa Libertadores, so there is surely going to be a lot of emotion in this game. Uruguay tend to keep things tight, while Paraguay almost always open up, so we might see goals, but we might see a cagey match as well. 

And the final, and most important, storyline is that this is the Last Dance for legendary striker Luis Suarez, who will retire from the national team after this match, and reports state that he will most likely start, and get subbed off later in the game in order to receive the standing ovation. And if you're new here, such situations are one of my favourite to bet on goalscorer props. Leaving aside the sides and totals, I think these are very tricky and I don't want to get involved. 

But I do like the odds on Luis Suarez to score anytime (+120), he still has some gas left in the tank, with 16 goals and 5 assists in 20 matches in the MLS this season, and with this being his very last match with his national team, and with Nunez suspended, Suarez will have his fair share of scoring chances against a soft Paraguay defense. 

Take 3u on Luis Suarez to score anytime (+120), playable to -110