Turkey vs Iceland
UEFA Nations League, Monday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

Turkey fizzled against a Wales team that generally keep it tight at the back, they also had am early red card, so take that Under with a grain of salt because Turkey are an Overs team. They went 5-0 to the Over 2.5 goals in the EUROs, they have a broken defense that might be able to play good all of a sudden, but they are VERY prone to mistakes. And their offense is very good, they can score 3 goals on their own and cash this ticket by themselves. 

Iceland have gone through some growing plains in the past couple of years but they have a solid generation of players and they can score. They are coming off a 2-0 win over Montenegro at home, where they did allow quite a few shots, but Montenegro couldn't score. Turkey are a different beast. Iceland rarely keep clean sheets, they don't have that good of a defense, but they have some dangerous and quality players up front that can really take advantage of whatever Turkey give them. 

Turkey absolutely need a win here, Iceland would be OK with a draw in what is probably the hardest match they have in this stage. We are going with the Over 2.75 Goals, which is a split line between the Over 2.5 Goals and the Over 3 Goals, expecting a goal-fest in which Turkey can score 3 on their own (although Iceland can easily assist in scoring).

Take 3u on the Over 2.75 Goals (-105), playable to -125