PARLAY: New England/Montreal Over 2.5 & LAFC ML
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Playable to -115

LAFC vs Austin
MLS, Wednesday, 10:30pm ET

LAFC are coming off a strange 3-match win-less streak (W0 D1 L2) in league play after the Leagues Cup break, something that can be justified by their involvement in the US Open Cup semi-finals (where they beat Seattle and moved to the final), and due to the international break that left them without many key players in the 0-0 draw against Houston. They did take a 2-goal lead against the Galaxy over the weekend, but ended up losing by 4-2. 

Now back home for an important match against an Austin side that have shown signs of life in recent weeks, but they are coming here without key players (Driussi, Hines Ike), and they also had to travel cross-country from Toronto to LA on a short notice, while LAFC remained in LA. Austin have pulled some upsets here and there as of late, but they are still bad on the road in league play (W3 D3 L8), scoring just 9 goals and conceding 20. They are 5 points outside the playoff spots, and with a tough schedule to finish the regular season (hosting Houston, RSL and Colorado, away at Portland and LA Galaxy), so any point would be welcome. 

But LAFC have not gone win-less in 4 consecutive matches this season, in fact the last time they went 3 matches without a win they exploded with a 5-0 home win over a very similar Nashville side. LAFC are sitting 2nd in the West with 48 points, 7 points behind the LA Galaxy but with two matches in hand. They also have the upcoming US Open Cup Final on September 25th against Kansas, so beating a tired and somewhat depleted Austin team (who have been terrible on the road) is a must if they want to have any chances of challenging the LA Galaxy for the top spot (and the complete home advantage that comes with it). 

LAFC beat Austin by 2-0 in this venue in the Leagues Cup but drew a 1-1 in Austin earlier in the season, in a match where they had 60% ball possession, created 16 shots (with 4 on target), while Austin scored in their only shot on target (3 shots total) in what was a very lopsided match. 

LAFC have won 4 of L/5 against Austin in the last two seasons, and have also won 4 of 5 home matches against them over the years. Now needing a win to get out of their mini-slump and catching Austin on a cross-country trip and without key man Driussi and Hines Ike at the defense. 

Take LAFC ML as a parlay piece.

New England vs Montreal
MLS, Wednesday, 7:30pm ET

New England are coming off a bad 3-0 loss at Orlando over the weekend, and are now win-less in L/3, conceding 2+ goals in all 3. They did come out of the Leagues Cup break with a massive 5-0 win over their upcoming opponents, Montreal, on the road, and they are now back at the bottom of the East with 27 points after 27 matches. However, they are just 6 points behind DC United and the last playoff spot, with two matches in hand, so their playoff hopes are still alive. They will need all sorts of results to go their way in order to make the playoffs, and also to improve their goal difference (currently at -24), which is the 2nd tiebreaker after the Total number of wins. 

Montreal are coming off a 2-1 win at home against Charlotte which was justified, washing off a couple of BAD losses to Cincinnati (4-1) and New England (5-0) after the break. Montreal are sitting 12th in the East with 30 points after 28 matches, just 3 points behind DC United and the last playoff spot, so a win against New England could potentially push them inside the playoff spots. But they've been terrible on the road so far (W2 D4 L8), scoring 16 and conceding 36 goals, by far the most in the East. They too need to win as many matches as possible, and also to improve their -22 goal difference, cause it all might come down to tiebreakers at the end of regular season. 

So far we've established that we have two teams that are looking to deplete their playoff hopes, they can't play good defense but they can score, and they both need to not only win, but also to improve their goal differentials. This already looks like goals, and the H2H supports that notion. 

8-2 run to the Over 2.5 goals in L/10 H2H matches regardless of venue, with 6 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. New England are on a 9-3 run to the Over 2.5 Goals in league play (and 5-1 in L/6 home matches). Montreal are on a 5-1 run to the Over 2.5 Goals in league play, and 6-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals in L/7 away matches in league play. 

Take the Over 2.5 Goals as the second leg of our parlay. 

Take 3% on a 2-team PARLAY: New England/Montreal Over 2.5 & LAFC ML (+100)