Line is good at -3.5 - but lower unit size to 2%.

Miami -3 vs Jax (49.5)

• I am very bullish on this Dolphins team and I think they come out of the gate flying. I actually Iike them to win over 9.5 games on the season. I personally made this bet.
• This Dolphins team is loaded with Offensive talent - they might have the best WR core in football and a running game that works so well in this offense.
• I also like that they had a miserable ending to last year and I expect them to come out of the gates flying.
• I do think we see a better Jags team than last year, but this team will be hard pressed to make the playoffs.
• I want the better team at home to start the season and only laying 3 please.
• Miami -3 vs Jax - this line is good to -4
• PS: I like the Over in this game as well

HERE IS THE ENTIRE CARD FOR SUNDAY.

CLIENT BETS

5% - Atl -3 vs Pitt

4% - LAR/Det Over 51

3% - Miami -3 vs Jax

3% - Dallas & CIncy 6 Point Teaser

3% - Buff & Seattle 6 Point Teaser

2% - NE TT Under 16.5

CIRCA BETS (Carm and My Team)

Atl

Miami

Det

Raiders

Titans

SURVIVOR

Circa - Cincy

Kellys Splash Pool - 2 Teams - Seattle & Buffalo

LEANS - I am not betting these - but do lean the following way.

Car +4 vs NO (41.5)

• This division is a mess - these teams suck and honestly, anytime 2 crappy teams plays against each other and you can get more than a FG, take the points.
• With that said, the Under is the play here, as who the hell is going to score.
• I know it was last year, but the Panthers are bringing back almost the same offense that put up 0 points in their last 2 games.
• And now the Panthers have to play against a top 10 D unit. Last year the Saints allowed under 20 points per game and this is the strength of their team. This Panthers team will be hard pressed to get to 13 points.
• Now, the only real issue from a numbers perspective is the Panthers D is just as bad as their O. This was the 4th worst unit last year. BUT 2 things - 1 they have a whole new D look and scheme with new faces and leaders.
• Now with that said, I do not think they are going to be a great unit, but they are playing the Saints on Sunday and this Saints team will run a very conservative offense.
• Carr is prone to making mistakes and I think we see the Saints play slow small ball - they want to hold the ball and move the clock and escape with 20-17 type wins.
• Both teams will be looking to just not make mistakes.
• Car/NO Under 41.5

NE TT Under 16.5 -125

• I am looking to take the Under in every pats game, as they have a rock solid D, a great secondary and will be the most conservative offense in the league.
• The reason, we are going to take the TT instead of the Under is honestly this line is too low for a Bengals game. This is a team that can score and score fast and there is no reason to think they can’t put 24 on the board. With that said, I do like the Under a lot in this game, but just think the NE TT is a better bet.
• If the Bengals win 28-14, it goes over the total, but we still win our NE TT Under.
• This Pats team is going will grind the clock out. Not only do I think we see them need 3 plays to get 10 yards all game long, but their D is good enough to make their opponents need 3 plays to get 10 yards as well.
• I see NE grinding the clock down and settling for FGs instead of TDs. I would be surprised if they put up more than 13 points in this game.
• I also think we see their D hold Cincy to a few FGs along the way and also helping to grind that clock down. Plus the longer the Cincy has the ball, the less chance NE has to get over their TT total.
• If Chase doesn’t play, I think this helps our bet, as Chase is their deep threat and I think we see Cincy resort to more small ball. Furthermore, it will also help keep Cincy’s overall score down, so NE will not have to go for it behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter.
• I think we see a 20-10, 20-13 type game
• The Pats averaged under 14 points a game last year and honestly have done nothing personal wise to suggest anything will change.
• NE TT Under 16.5

Ariz +6 vs Buff (48)

• If this line was 7, I would take the Cards here as they might be a sneaky team this year. Last year was a disaster, but they had injuries all over the place and this team is not far removed from being good.
• As for the Bills, it will be interesting to see how they do on offense without Diggs and now they have lost Matt Milano on D.
• Both these teams are stay away teams right now.
• Nothing
   

Hou -2.5 vs Indy (49)

• Houston came into last year with no pressure and had a big season - this year is different and I think we see them regress.
• Here we have a division dog at home with a QB who is chomping at the bit in Richardson and we are going to take the points. Would rather see a 3, but I think Indy wins this game outright.
• Indy +2.5 vs Houston

Miami -3 vs Jax (49.5)

• I am very bullish on this Dolphins team and I think they come out of the gate flying. I actually Iike them to win over 9.5 games on the season. I personally made this bet.
• This Dolphins team is loaded with Offensive talent - they might have the best WR core in football and a running game that works so well in this offense.
• I also like that they had a miserable ending to last year and I expect them to come out of the gates flying.
• I do think we see a better Jags team than last year, but this team will be hard pressed to make the playoffs.
• I want the better team at home to start the season and only laying 3 please.
• Miami -3 vs Jax - this line is good to -4
• PS: I like the Over in this game as well

Min/NYG

• I am passing on this game completely.

Pitt +3 vs Atl (42.5)

• Okay here is the bottom line - I think the Falcons win the division -120 - make that bet and I think they have a chance to be really good. They have weapons everywhere and if Captain Kirk gells with his team - they could have a big time offense.
• As for the Steelers, this is the year Tomlin ends with a losing record. This team is a total mess with nothing good in sight.
• Atlanta -3

Tenn +4.5 vs Chi (45.5)

• Passing on this game - need to see how these teams define themselves with all the new players, coaches etc.
   

Den +5.5 vs Sea (42)

• Again, total pass for me in this game - just don’t quite know who these teams are yet.

LVR +3 vs LAC (41)

• Let me start by saying, this Raiders team might be sneaky good - simply put, they friggen love their coach and that is important. Other than their QB issues (and who knows - maybe they have none), this team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.
• As for the Chargers - this is a wait and see team - they are completely different to last year and have a new coach and likely a new identity.
• I think it will take a while for the Chargers to find their way, so let’s have the dog here please.
• LVR +3

Dallas +2.5 vs Cle (42)

• Okay I don’t really get this line. I know the Browns have a great D (#1 last year in yards allowed), but they did let teams score more than 21 points a game which put them in the middle of the pack. As for their Offense - man Watson might end up crippling this franchise - not only is his contract the worst in history, but he might continue to totally suck.
• Don’t be sleeping on this Dallas team - I know a lot of talking heads do not like them this year, but this is a team that had the 5th best D in the league in allowing points (which from my perspective, is the most important of all D things) and the #1 team in all of football in scoring points.
• So if you look at both sides of this game - Cleveland’s D is worse than Dallas’ and Clevelands offense is like a tootsie roll compared to Dallas’ Toblerone.
• I know these are last year’s numbers, but I dont think Cleveland did much to fix their team, except get Watson back and Dallas didn’t exactly loose everyone of their roster.
• And don’t forget their best offensive weapon Mr Chubb is out for the next 4 weeks.
• Bottom line - Dallas has the best player on the field on D in Micah, the best QB by far, the best WR, the better D unit, the much better O unit and are a veteran team that knows it needs to win out of the gate.
• Maybe the only reason the Boys are a dog here was they went 4-5 on the road last year - but keep in mind they blew the Giants 40-0 Week 1 last season.
• This is a no-brainer pick for me.
• Dallas +2.5 vs Clev

Wash +3.5 vs TB

• If Daniels plays well for Wash, this team might be a lot better than most expect. They are loaded with talent on offense and their D has to be better than the god awful unit they put out last season.
• As for the Bucs - I look at this team as old, slow, badly coached and a team with a totally inconsistent QB prone to big time mistakes.
• I will happily take the points here.
• Wash +3.5 vs TB

LAR/Det

• Analysis provided in the 5% write up.