3% UCF (-21) VS SAM HOUSTON STATE

I love this spot for Central Florida. They have one of the most explosive running games in the country and head coach Gus Malzahn knows exactly how to use it to blow teams out. Not only did they return thier 2 top RBs from a year ago that combined for 1989 rushing yards at  but Gus recruited Peny Boone from Toledo who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year. They also got former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson in the Portal and he had 2 great seasons with Arkansas and then they changed OC's and his numbers fell off a cliff. Enter Gus and his style of offense that is perfectly suited for his abilities. I expect KJ to have a huge year for UCF. Bottom line for me is that Coach Malzahn loves to blowout inferior teams is not shy about running up the score, as they are 7-0 ATS with him as a HC when favored by more than 21 points . They also average 57 points in those games, including last week’s 57-3 win against New Hampshire while laying 39 points. Sam Houston State will NEVER be able to keep up on offense against the UCF team. Plus, history tells us that teams off a Blowout win against FCS opponents tend to come out firing again the following week. This is the blowout special of the day. Lay the 3 TD's and don't worry about it.

There are some -21s out there and many -21.5s - if you can get to 21 at -115, that is a better bet than -21.5 at -110. This line however is good all the way to -23.5 as I expect a total blowout here.