NO +6.5 vs Dallas (45.5) - Over

• Everyone has been shitting on the Boys all summer - take that pundits - this team is for real and have potentially the best offense in the league and without question a top 5 d unit.
• This Boys are going to average 30 points a game and should get to that number in every game they play at home - that means we need 16 from NO to get us over.
• What we saw from Kubiaks 1st game as the offensive coordinator, is mistake free football that utilized every facet of the field. Carr threw short and long - to the side and in the slot - they ran the ball well and they blocked well - this is an offense that if they make no mistakes should get us around 22 points on average a year.
• Although the Dallas D is incredible - I still expect the Saints to get to 20 points.
• This game will be somewhere around 30-24 and I think we easily get into the 50s here.
• NO/Dallas Over 45.5
• I also like Dallas TT Over and Dallas

Client Bets

• 3% - Cincy +6 vs KC - play is in
• 3% - Jacksonville -3 vs Cle - play is in
• 4% - NO/Dallas Over 45.5 - play is in
• 3% - Pats TT Under 17.5
• 3% - Pitt/Den Under 37
• 3% - Buff +8.5 / Houston / Det - 3 team 6 point teaser
   

Circa

This is Carm and my team - so for instance, I would not have included the Vikings, but we both get to included our favorite plays so all good and Carm is amazing at NFL.
 

• Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0
• Minnesota Vikings +5.0
• Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
• Denver Broncos +2.5
• Houston Texans -6.5

Survivor Picks 

• Balt
• Houston

Week 2 - All thoughts
 

Buff +2 vs Miami (50)

I have to look at the Under in this matchup for the following reason:

• Thursday Night Football games in September and October with totals of 49.5 or higher are 15-4-1 (79%) to the under, and those cover by 5.3 points per game.
• Bills road games with Sean McDermott as head coach are 33-21-2 (61%) to the under.
• Primetime unders over the last four seasons have hit at a 59% clip.
• Josh Allen’s hand is not 100% and that cannot be a good thing for the Bills offense.
• Miami, had real trouble establishing the run against the Jags in Week 1.
• The Weather looks to be a disaster Thursday night with rain and big time wind.

LVR +9.5 vs Balt (41.5)

• The Raiders just dont match up well here, but this is way way way too many points - especially against an inconsistent Lamar. And trust me that is what he is - when Lamar is on he is world class - when he is off - he is Justin Fields - we saw that all in 1 drive last week, where he missed 2 wide open TDs at the end of the game, only to throw a great pass on the 3rd down. This is why I find it so hard to bet on or against the Ravens.
• Raiders/Ravens - Pass on side and total but included in Teaser
   

LAC -6.5 vs Car (39.5)

• The Chargers offense looked terrible against the Raiders (minus Dobbins) and that was expected, as they have almost no weapons but even worse their Oline struggled all day long.
• With that said, the Panthers don’t have the pass rush the Raiders have and the Panthers might be on their way to the worst team ever - it’s going to be a long season for this team.
• If ever you want to get your pass game going, play the Panthers - the conservative Saints team put up 740 points against the Panthers in week 1.
• The one good thing for the Chargers is their pass rush and Young is going to be Old by the end of this game.
• I know we are over-reacting, but I cannot take the Panthers unless they are getting 20 points and even then it might be a pass.
• Hold your nose and take the Chargers -6 on the road and trust me they shouldn’t be -6 on the road against anyone - but the Panthers.
• LAC -6 vs Car
   

NO +6.5 vs Dallas (45.5) - Over

• Everyone has been shitting on the Boys all summer - take that pundits - this team is for real and have potentially the best offense in the league and without question a top 5 d unit.
• This Boys are going to average 30 points a game and should get to that number in every game they play at home - that means we need 16 from NO to get us over.
• What we saw from Kubiaks 1st game as the offensive coordinator, is mistake free football that utilized every facet of the field. Carr threw short and long - to the side and in the slot - they ran the ball well and they blocked well - this is an offense that if they make no mistakes should get us around 22 points on average a year.
• Although the Dallas D is incredible - I still expect the Saints to get to 20 points.
• NO/Dallas Over 45.5
• I also like Dallas TT Over and Dallas

TB +7 vs Det (51) - Over

• Now Williams might be a monster - are you kidding me - how many weapons is one team allowed.
• This Lions team is so stacked - but they do have 1 problem and that is their secondary. Cooper Kupp went off on them on Sunday night and there is no reason to think Baker and Evans won’t have a big day.
• As of now 3/4th of the TB secondary is injured (too early in week for an update), but assume they play - they still are going to struggle to keep this Lions team down.
• Simply put, the Lions are going to average around 30 points per game this year and given they needed OT to get to 26 last game, they haven’t broken out yet - this will be that game.
• As for TB - I don’t believe in their D at all - I think their secondary even healthy is week, but I do think they put up points - and yes they put up 37 against Wash, but Wash does not have a good D - maybe the worst in football - with that said, TB will still put up 20 against Det.
• 2 teams who have good or great offenses with mediocre defenses, indoors - over please.
• TB/Det Over 48.5
• I also like the Lions 1st half
   

Indy -3 vs GB (41)

• This game is a pass

Cle +3.5 vs Jax (41.5) - 
 

• I got a lot of slack for calling out the Clev D - and boom I was right - I also mentioned how bad Watson is and double boom - right again. This Clev team is not good - forget about how bad Watson is - their Oline makes the Rams Oline look world class - Dallas literally bought real estate in their backfield. On top of that, it looks and sounds like the team and especially the players are about to quit on Watson - plus there is now more woman coming out about his criminal activities. Couple that with the fact that their Oline is still injured, that Chubb is not coming back and that they can’t score and we have to look at the Jags here. The Browns had 54 yards of offense and one first down in the 1st half and didnt complete a pass of more than 5 years. I am going to keep fading this team and I like that they are playing against a Jags team that gave their game away.
• I am not in love with the Jags either, but I’ll take this home team laying only 3 against a Browns team that has to be shell shocked. This is a great spot for this Jags team who literally let the Week 1 game slip away. Now they come home to play the Browns and if they have any hope of doing anything, they certainly do not want to start the season 0-2. I know we can say the same about the Browns, but I don’t think they have any hope doing anything in the first place.
• Jax -3
   

SF -6 vs Min (45)

• I will make this short - super impressive win by Minny last week and wow Darnold played well, but that was against a CFL team with High School players on it.
• Now they face who I think is the best team in football by far - think about how good the Jets D is and how easily SF ran up the score on them. Sure SF is now on the road - who cares - they are indoors against Sam Darnold for F sake.
• Simply put anytime I can get SF under 7, they are worth looking at.
• SF -6 - not betting this game at all
   

Sea -3 vs NE (38)

• NE TT Under 17.5
   

NYJ -4 vs Ten (41.5)

• Man if Tenn didn’t lose last week, this Jets team would be in an incredible spot - I would be making a big bet on them here
• Pass
• I do lean on the Under in this game
   

NYG +2.5 vs Wash (42)

• The only bright spot for Wash was Daniels running the ball - other than that, the Commodors were horrendous - They were Trully bad - They are Still bad - they sailed on down the line - they were easy to beat like Sunday morning - get it lmao - a bunch of Commodor songs for you youngens.
• As for the Giants - they were even worse - omg these 2 teams are terrible - what do you do in this game.
• When 2 teams stink - when both teams have zero defense and when both teams come off horrendous offensive performances (dont excuse the pun), you take the Over.
• Hold your breath and wait as this game will get close to the 50s.
• NYG/Wash Over 43
• I do like the Giants here too but not betting it
   

Rams +1.5 vs Arizona (49.5)

• There is a lot to like about this Rams team on both sides of the ball.
• If Johnson is for real and Nacau comes back - this is an offense that has weapons everywhere - they just have to fix their Oline and fix it fast.
• The Cards looked great for 1 half and had a defensive meltdown the 2nd half. They allowed 14 plays for over 10 yards a play which is horrible and were unable to stop anything all 2nd half.
• With that said, their offense looks good and had Murray seen Jr wide open at the end of the game - they beat the Bills.
• I was totally impressed with the Cards offense and unimpressed with their D.
• I am struggling to find a bet on this game, as the Rams would snap the ball with 1 second to go on the play clock which is an Under thing to do, yet they should get a ton of big plays against the Cards D unit which should lead to the Over - plus Zona can keep up offensively.
• Rams/Cards Over 49.5
   

Cincy +6 vs KC (47) - Cincy

• This is the over-reaction line of the week - Cincy is a really good football team - they made a ton of mistakes against the Pats all over the place, but are we to think this Cincy team is just going to lay down and die.
• We have seen great teams lose to bad teams every year and what does that mean - it means that great team is going to be super dangerous the following week.
• I expect this to be the wise guy game of the week and I think we see a ton of money come on the Bengals.
• As for KC - they played good against Baltimore, but were lucky to get out of that game with a win. This team should not be laying 6 against one of the elite teams in football period. Is this line a reflection of how good KC is or how bad Cincy is - this line makes no sense to me.
• Cincy has covered this number 4 of 5 times since Burrows has been around and the only time they didnt was an 8 point loss last time out and Borrows didnt play that game.
• Cincy +6 vs KC
   

Pitt -3 vs Den (36.5) - Under

• I found it interesting that Payton kept calling pass plays for Nix - not only was this a close game, but Denver was winning for a while - yet they just didnt want to run the ball - I wonder why that is and if they continue with this game plan, Nix might get killed against this Steelers pass rush.
• I find it hard to bet Pitt - even though they won last week, they didnt score a TD and their offense looked bad.
• I find it equally hard to bet on Denver here for basically the same reason.
• We are going to look at the Under in this game - who the hell is going to score and frankly, I also like the Denver TT Under which will be around 14.5.
• Den has to run it more - Pitt will eat Nix alive and Pitt will run the ball all day long (Denver couldn’t stop the run in the 2nd half against Sea)
• Pitt/Den Under 36.5
• I like both TTs under as well
   

Chi +6.5 vs Hou (46) - Hou

• I will make this one quick - until the Bears do something they are a bet against team. I know they beat the Titans - but did they really - seemed like only 1 team showed up that game - the good Titans team and the bad Titans team.
• Chicago has D issues - O issues - coaching issues - I don’t even like their pizza - so add pizza issues.
• Their offense last week made the Fields lead Bears offense look like world beaters.
• Houston should have no issue putting 30 up on this team and there is no chance the Bears score more than 20.
• Houston -6.5