(181) New Mexico at (182) Arizona 

3% Arizona -30.0 (-110)

The Wildcats are in a unique situation as they lost their coach yet every starter post bowl that said they were returning did. They have 4 starters including their best 3 players all played together in high school and they kept the unit together. Arizona went from 1-11, to 5-7 to 10-3 LY with the 3 losses by 2, 7 and 7 points as a 21, 20 and 9 pt dog. Arizona was #17 in yards per play diff and they return 15 starters and are #28 in returning production. Fifta and McMillian may be the conference's best QB/WR duo. Wildcats were a fav of -14+ twice LY and they covered both by 10 PPG. New OC Babers likes to play as fast as anyone, and he was #12 & #7 in plays per game his first two years are BG and #7 and #1 his first two years at Syracuse. This is the national Saturday Night Espn game and they have Northern Arizona at home on deck.
New Mexico is #124 in returning production with only 9 returning starters as three offensive starters being 2 WR’s and a TE that does not bode well for a rush attack to try and shorten the game. New HC Mendenhall has his work cut out for him. While a new coach certainly may treat this huge lined games differently the Lobos have gone 0-8 ATS as a dog of +24 and higher.

 

How have big favorite done week #1 (-24 and higher)? 
Since 2014 they are 52.9% ATS but...
Versus VCS foes they are 112-107-5 (51.1%) 

Versus FBS teams they are 56-40 (58.3%) and 42-21-2 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite of -28 and higher.