This game sets up as a classic "rest vs. rust" spot. Historically, WNBA home favorites with at least five days of rest compared to just one for their opponent are only 11-23-2 ATS dating back to 2011. When the home favorite's last game was on the road, that record drops to 2-9-2 ATS. This is exactly the situation the Liberty find themselves in today.

From a matchup perspective, since the Olympic break, there are a few areas where the Storm could find success against the Liberty, specifically points off turnovers and the mid-range game. In their last matchup, the Liberty had 16 turnovers, leading to 24 points off turnovers for the Storm—a scenario that could easily repeat itself. While the Liberty capitalized on second-chance opportunities and shot well from three in that game, I believe the Storm can make the necessary adjustments to limit those areas just enough to cover this large spread.

Additionally, the Liberty tend to struggle as home favorites, going just 4-12 ATS in this spot. This includes a 2-7 ATS record and a 6-3 trend to the over when they've beaten their opponent in the previous matchup.

I’m taking the Storm plus the points and the over.