When transitioning from road to home games, the Seattle Storm have shown a tendency towards lower-scoring affairs. They are 3-2 to the under and 4-1 to their team total under in these situations, averaging 80.8 points per game while holding their opponents to just 71.8 points. Combined, these numbers fall well below today's total of 164.5.

Since the Olympic break, the Phoenix Mercury have been playing at the 2nd slowest pace in the league, and both teams rank in the bottom five in offensive rating. This sets up for what could be an ugly offensive game, especially given the current travel dynamics: the Mercury are on a one-off road game, and the Storm are in a one-off home game.

The Storm, in particular, tend to play strong defense at home, which should further limit scoring opportunities for the Sparks. Given these factors, I'm taking the under 164.5 in this matchup, and I’m comfortable with it down to 163.