Since the Olympic break, the Mystics have been playing outstanding basketball, especially on the defensive end. Mystics' opponents are 7-2 to their team total under during this stretch, underscoring their defensive dominance.

While the Lynx have also been playing well, they are at a disadvantage in terms of rest, both coming into and following this game. This is a trend I've been tracking in the WNBA over the past couple of seasons. Since 2022, teams in this less-rested spot are just 6-14-1 ATS, which does not bode well for the Lynx here.

From a total perspective, both teams rank in the top 5 in defensive rating since the All-Star break. The Lynx are 8th in pace, while the Mystics lead the league in effective field goal percentage allowed. Both teams excel in limiting fast break points, which should contribute to a slower, more defensively focused game.

Given these factors, I like the Mystics to cover the spread and for the game to stay under the total.