The New York Liberty are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Lynx, and they have a favorable opportunity to do so against a Mystics team that has been struggling offensively. While the Mystics have been playing solid defense recently, their offensive production has been lacking, and they are coming off an exhausting overtime game, which could lead to a fatigue factor impacting their performance. Additionally, the Mystics will be without Shakira Austin for the remainder of the season and Aaliyah Edwards is doubtful tonight, further weakening their interior presence.

Both teams have shown strong defensive form since the Olympic break, but the key difference lies in the Liberty's superior offense. The Liberty have a distinct advantage in key areas such as free throw rate and rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass. This should provide them with extra scoring opportunities, further widening the gap between the two teams.

The Liberty have covered the spread in their last three games following a straight-up loss, showing their ability to rebound effectively. Since the Olympic break, they are 6-1 ATS on the road, while the Mystics have struggled as home underdogs, going just 2-3 ATS in that role. 

Given these trends and angles, the Liberty is a strong play, as they have the tools to control the game on both ends of the floor and cover the spread against a tired Mystics team.