Baltimore’s offense thrives on the run game, and they’ve leaned heavily on Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to get the job done. But that game plan won’t fly against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a top-10 run defense, even with some linebackers missing, and they’ve shown they can stuff even elite rushers. Derrick Henry’s production will be limited, forcing Lamar Jackson to pass more. If Jackson is scrambling and under pressure, expect a slower, grind-it-out offensive performance with fewer explosive plays.

The Bills will generate pressure, and that’s crucial for this under. Baltimore’s offensive line is dealing with injuries, and that’s going to make life harder for Jackson. When you take away the Ravens’ ability to dominate on the ground, it’s difficult to see them putting up big numbers. 

On the other side, Josh Allen has been figuring out his new receiving corps, but it hasn’t been as smooth as some people expected. Even though the Bills have put up points, they’re not playing a shootout-type of game. Allen has relied on his ability to scramble to keep drives alive, and while Baltimore’s defense isn’t what it used to be, it still has enough to slow down Buffalo’s attack. The Ravens' defense has struggled in coverage, but with Baltimore likely playing a bit more conservatively, the game script could result in fewer points being scored overall.

With Baltimore’s reliance on the run being neutralized by Buffalo’s solid rush defense, and the Bills' offense still working through some growing pains, this game feels like a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Under 47 is the best bet in this matchup.