The public perception of Jacksonville has been significantly impacted by Trevor Lawrence's struggles, which has inflated the line in favor of Houston. Despite Lawrence’s rocky start and the Jaguars' 0-3 record, the matchup itself presents opportunities for Jacksonville to exploit Houston's weaknesses, making this a solid value bet.

The Texans’ pass rush has been effective, but their secondary remains a glaring vulnerability, ranking poorly against the pass. This sets up an opportunity for Lawrence to bounce back, especially if the Jaguars can establish the run with Travis Etienne. Houston has struggled to defend the run, and a balanced offensive attack could allow Jacksonville to control the tempo and keep this game within a touchdown.

Overall, while Houston has started strong, the Jaguars are still a dangerous underdog capable of keeping this game close. The inflated line provides an opportunity to back Jacksonville, especially given their bounce-back potential and the weaknesses in Houston's defense.