Kirk Cousins hasn't looked the same since Atlanta lost key offensive linemen Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary. Against the Saints, the Falcons struggled despite the win, producing only 315 total yards and getting bailed out by special teams and defensive plays. With two key linemen missing and a heavy-blitz defense from Tampa Bay, Cousins could face even more pressure. The fact that his completion percentage drops significantly against blitz-heavy defenses is a red flag.

The Buccaneers thrive when their star defensive lineman Vita Vea is on the field, especially in stopping the run. Last week, they completely shut down Saquon Barkley, and with Bijan Robinson not at 100%, it’s hard to see the Falcons establishing any real ground game. This means Cousins will have to carry the offense without the support of a strong rushing attack, which spells trouble given the pressure he’ll face.

While the Bucs won't dominate on the ground, they can exploit Atlanta’s secondary with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Evans will face A.J. Terrell in a tough matchup, but Godwin should see plenty of opportunities in the slot, an area where the Falcons’ defense is weaker. This passing advantage should allow the Buccaneers to move the chains efficiently.

Give me the Buccaneers plus the points, though I think they have a legit shot at winning this one outright.

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