We’ve seen the first two games of this series go well under the total, but Game 3 is set up to be different. 

Game 2 was extremely physical, with fewer fouls called than you’d expect. However, in Game 3, I’m expecting the referees to crack down early, which should lead to more fouls being called and more trips to the free-throw line. When defenses get into foul trouble, they tend to dial back their aggression, opening up opportunities for both teams’ offenses to get into a better rhythm.

On the Lynx side, Napheesa Collier shot just 3/14 from the field in Game 2. Collier is too good to have another game like that, so I’m expecting her to bounce back in a big way. For the Sun, finding ways to get Brionna Jones involved early should open things up for other players like Mabrey, allowing Connecticut to put up more points.

 Some strong trends point toward the over being a solid bet here:

• Playoff Road Dogs After Consecutive Unders: Since 2014, road dogs that have gone under in at least two straight games are 16-6 (72.7%) to the over.
• Playoff Road Dogs Off a Home Under: Since 2018, road dogs off a home game that went under are 12-4 (75%) to the over.
• Sun’s Over Trend: This season, the Sun are 7-0 to the over when the total is less than 155 and they are favored by fewer than 12 points.
• Lynx’s Over Trend as Road Dogs: The Lynx 3-0 to the over as road dogs since the Olympic break.

The total has dropped down to 151.5, which seems to be too much of an overreaction to the low-scoring first two games. Given the trends and anticipated changes in game flow, there’s value on taking the over.

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