Aaron Nola of the Phillies has pitched 7-0 to the under in his home starts this season whenever the total was between 8.5 to 9.5, and there were only a combined 5.1 runs scored per game. During 13 home starts this season, Nola has recorded a shiny 3.12 ERA/1.08 WHIP while averaging a sizable 6.2 innings pitched per outing. As a matter of fact, Nola has a stellar 1.47 ERA during his last 3 starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies bullpen has a respectable staff 1.25 WHIP since 8/1. The current Houston Astros roster has been a combined 13-for-61 (.206) lifetime against Aaron Nola.

Justin Verlander is certainly not the once dominating starting pitcher than he once was. However, he was solid in last Wednesday's start while allowing 2 earned runs on 4 hits with 6 strikeouts versus only 1 walk in 5.0 innings pitched. That outing was his first after an extended stay on the IL The current Phillies roster is 13-for-59 (.220) lifetime versus Verlander. Since 8/1, the Houston bullpen has been terrific while compiling a staff 2.96 ERA/1.10 WHIP and opponents were held to a paltry .181 team batting average. 

Give me this game to go under the total.