First of all, we have a 2-0 team from a Power 4 Conference in Arizona State as just a 2.0-point favorite over a Group of 5 team like Texas State that comes off their first winning season in 9 years. If it looks too good to be true in sports betting more times than not it is, and this is a textbook example of such.

Arizona State is coming off a 30-23 home win over Mississippi State in which they amassed 359 yards rushing. Texas State is coming off a 49-10 blowout win over UTSA in which they held the Roadrunners to only 82 yards rushing. 

Any College Football home team with a point-spread of +2.0 to -31.0 that is coming off a game in which they allowed 100 yards or less rushing, and they're facing an opponent that gained 300 yards or more rushing in their previous game, resulted in those home teams going 19-1 SU and 17-3 ATS since 2020. Since this betting angle supports the home underdog in this game, the 19-1 SU results take on added significance. Give me Texas State plus points.