I am not going to let the hook on a key number scare me away for betting the favorite in this game. Detroit is coming off a thrilling 26-20 home overtime win over the Rams last Sunday night and covered as a 4.5-point favorite. The Lions are now 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 at home with 13 of those contests coming as a favorite. Detroit also defeated Tampa Bay twice and covered on both occasions a season ago which included a postseason Divisional Round win which sent them to the NFC Championship Game. The Lions are 5-0 since the start of last season versus teams from the NFC South Division. 

Tampa Bay is coming off an impressive 37-20 home win over Washington and covered as a 4.0-point home favorite. They now step way up in competition from facing a Washington team that went 4-13 a season ago to playing a Lions squad that went 13-4 last year.

Any NFL home favorite of between 3.0 to 11.0 that's coming off a home favorite cover in which they scored 21 points or more, and they won 6 or more games the season before, versus an opponent playing with double revenge and is coming of an ATS cover as a favorite, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The average line in those 14 contests was 5.3 and the favorites won by a massive 26.3 points per game.

Give me the Lions minus points.