1.5% Rotation #953: MLB Thursday 1.5% Philadelphia Phillies -215 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Yes we could also play the run line here and have juice in the -140 range but lets say we do that and lay 2% instead of 1.5%. Then the risk amount is 2.80 units compared to 3.22 units here with what we are doing by playing the money line instead. That is why I am willing to risk slightly more units even to have slightly less payout because the fact is I hate getting burned on run line plays when we lay it with a team -1.5 runs and then they only win the game by 1 run. That really stings and I want to avoid that possible scenario. The fact is the red hot Phillies have won 4 straight games and 9 of 11. Also, 4 of the last 7 wins have been 1-run games so, again, just feel more secure with the money line here and reducing the rating down to a 1.5% pick. The Marlins are off a home win in extra innings but this followed having lost 12 of last 15 games at home! Of course the Phillies have a big pitching edge here as Adam Oller is 4-10 with a 6.53 ERA in his career. Philadelphia's Ranger Suarez is 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA this season and has a 2.79 ERA in road games and a 2.41 ERA in evening games! The Phillies are 40-22 this season against teams that are sub-.500 on the year. The Marlins are 26-45 at home this season which is the worst home mark in the majors! Phillies are 59-33 in night games. Miami is 28-55 night games plus an unreal 10-39 this season against southpaw starters. The road team rolls in this one. 1.5% PHILAELPHIA -215