3% Rotation #309: CFB Saturday 3% OVER 49 -120 in Penn State Nittany Lions vs  Bowling Green Falcons @ Noon ET - First off, about this total and, of course, lines move! But, as of 5:15 AM ET, there is some 49 at some books but there is also plenty of 49.5 out there and I hate getting half-pointed on games. That said, I am laying the extra juice at DraftKings and grabbing their offering of over 49 at -120 price in alternate totals. By the time you are reading this the lines could have moved of course but even though there is some 49 out there I know there is a lot of 49.5 out there at major books so I am going with a true offering of over 49 at a -120 price at the time of this posting. Now, onto the “nuts and bolts” of this one. The Nittany Lions are favored by 5 touchdowns roughly. That means, if the odds makers are right about the spread, we only need 7 points from the Falcons and we are at a 42-7 type of game here. However, though I do think the Nittany Lions will get into this range of points scored, I also think the Falcons are going to enjoy more success than just 7 points here. Yes, Bowling Green is a MAC school but they catch PSU off a big road win at West Virginia. Even though the Mountaineers only scored 12 points, they were also done in by turnovers in that game including turning the ball over on downs after a long drive. Bowling Green played an FCS school last week but still it was a confidence booster for them and the Falcons scored 41 points. BG returned 15 starters from last year's team and QB Connor Bazelak has a lot of experience and did not play in the game against Michigan last season when they scored only 6 points. He had some solid performances in MAC games but what about against bigger schools? Well in the bowl game versus Minnesota, Bazelak helped lead the way and the Falcons scored 24 points and also he helped lead the way in a 38-27 win over Georgia Tech. Of course the PSU defense is a tough D but also they were focused on WVU coming into the season and plus now they have an early-season bye week on deck. This D could be overconfident and complacent against a Falcons team that could surprise with a couple of scores here. Ultimately PSU should roll and that is why I have this game in the 49-14 range or perhaps 45-10 but this is why I see solid line value here with this over. Also the rain this morning in State College is expected to have moved through by kickoff time for this one and we should have good football weather here with some wind but not too much (10-15 mph range expected). The Nittany Lions did average 42 points scored in their 10 victories last season and 38 per victory the year before. Against a suspect MAC D here, they can really roll up the points in this one! 3% OVER 49 -120 in Penn State