4% Rotation #923: MLB Sunday 4% OVER 8 in Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 16 runs and as I mentioned in my write-up yesterday Arizona has, for the most part, been an over machine since the All-Star break. Of course you can't just blindly play the over in each one of their games but this is indeed another great value spot here. The Astros are expected to start Justin Verlander here and he has not been the same pitcher since he returned after the All Star break and came back to the club in mid-August. His 1st start was okay but not great and now he has been rocked in each of his two starts since then. Verlander allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in 9.2 innings of work! Yes he has allowed 2 baserunners per inning in his last two starts. Also, Ryne Nelson expected to start for the Diamondbacks and he has been pitching quite well for an extended stretch but last season he faded in August/September and I still sense a similar scenario for him here to wrap this season. A big key here is facing an Astros team that has won 6 straight home games and scored an average of 6.7 runs per game during this home winning streak. This Houston team is very confident at the plate and particularly at home. Keep in mind, behind Nelson for the Diamondbacks is a bullpen that has a 4.38 ERA which is 24th in the majors! 4% OVER 8 in Houston