4% Rotation #479: NFL Sunday 4% Los Angeles Rams +4.5 @ Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Revenge game from last season's playoffs. I already lost one of these playoff revengers with my 2% on the Ravens at Kansas City Thursday. However, Baltimore outgained the Chiefs by nearly 100 yards in that one. It was a tough loss, to say the least, for us to open the NFL season considering the stat edge as well. We got it back with my 3% on the Eagles Friday and now I am playing the playoff revenge angle again - just like Thursday - and this is my first 4% of the NFL season. Ironically, regarding yardage edges of about 100, the Rams did outgain the Lions in last year's post-season game by about 100 yards yet they lost the game by a single point. Of course a 1-point loss again here would suit our purposes just fine and I do like the fact this line is up to a 4.5 as even a 3 or 4 point Rams loss still gets us the cash. Los Angeles should be able to attack the Lions through the air as the pass defense is one weak link of Detroit. Yes, the Lions are a solid overall club but I feel they are over-valued here and not enough respect being given to a solid Rams team that still has Stafford at QB and a solid group of WR talent. I know the defense no longer has DT Darnold but if you compare these teams the defense of the Rams last season was superior to that of the Lions. If you look at the Detroit home wins last season, 6 of them were against teams that went a combined 39-63. Yes, all 6 had losing records on the season too. The Lions lost both home games against teams that ended up with a winning record last season. You can see where I am going with this and yes the Rams had a winning record last season. So I know Detroit got the better of them in the post-season but you saw the stats edge on that one and I feel the Rams are very undervalued here as a result. Remember LA finished up last season with wins in 7 of their final 8 games on the season. The lone loss was in OT! Yes both teams have had some changes since last season but given all of the above, I certainly don't feel enough has changed to warrant the Lions being favored by 4.5 points here! Playoff revenge for Rams and I know the defense has new names but these guys are well-coached and playing with an “us against the world” mentality as there are many doubters! I am aware that the starting LT Jackson is suspended for two games so he is out here but remember that Noteboom has plenty of NFL experience and will be the one to likely slot right in. Give me the generous points here and we likely will not even need them. 4% LOS ANGELES RAMS +4.5