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Scott Rickenbach

Scott Rickenbach

(481) New York Jets at (482) San Francisco 49ers

Event:
(481) New York Jets at (482) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League:
NFL
Date/Time:
September 9, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-118
Play:
3% – San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-118)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Rotation #482: Monday NFL 3% San Francisco 49ers -3.5 -118 vs New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - This line, as of 7 AM ET, is currently -3.5 -118 at FanDuel but also at DraftKings if you select alternate spread you will see -3.5 at -120. I am not going to pay the lofty price to have this line at a -3 but I am happy to pay a little extra juice and also make a 4-point Niners victory a win for us at the window rather than a push. I am looking for San Francisco to roll and, of course, I could write at length here about all the match-ups and the players but actually I believe our biggest edges here are found elsewhere! The Jets head coach is Robert Saleh. i am not saying he is a bad head coach but I will just say that he is still finding his footing. He is a combined 18-33 with the Jets so far. Now, Saleh has his Jets team all the way on the west coast here and facing the defending NFC champs who are FIRED UP about getting this season off to a great start after losing in the Super Bowl last season. That brings me to head coach Kyle Shanahan. He has the experience edge over Saleh and also has taken his Niners to at least the NFC Championship Game in 4 of the past 5 seasons and two times they have made it to the Super Bowl. In those 4 seasons he has a regular season combined record of 48-19. Also, the promotion of Nick Sorensen to defensive coordinator is going to be a seamless transition as he has already been with the Niners for multiple seasons and also was previously with the Seahawks coaching staff when their defense was enjoying some of their peak years! The Niners are ready to go here and are undervalued after the downward line move as this line was as high as a -6 before moving down. I know Christian McCaffrey is listed as questionable but he has said he is available and I am expecting him to not only play here but also play a key role as he has recovered plenty from his calf/Achilles heel issue. This is a great value spot to have a solid home team that is so strong on both sides of the ball and very hungry after losing the Super Bowl last year. Also, lets not forget Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and the Jets QB has not seen significant action since his 2022 season with the Packers. The Jets are a solid team but they also still have a lot to prove and I feel they will have some early season growing pains. They are not yet at the level this 49ers team is and yet this game is being priced as if it would be a pick'em on a neutral field. I certainly am not ready to say that the Jets are equal to the 49ers at this point. They have a lot to prove first! 3% SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -118

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