3% Rotation #301: NFL Thursday 3% OVER 38 -116 in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As of 5:15 AM ET, this total is available at over 38 -116 at DraftKings in the alternate total options. Of course 38 can be a more common number for NFL totals to land on with scores like 21-17 and 24-14, etc. I am laying a little extra juice here to have 38 as a push. Of course by the time you are reading this the total could have moved one way or the other but as of the time of this pick being released, this is an excellent option for us. The Jets are without linebacker Reddick and now they lost a defensive end, Johnson, to injury. The Jets defense does not rate well so far this season plus the injury issues are not helping. The Patriots D has been a strength but I also expect the Jets offense to get a boost in finally being at home this week. This is their home opener and finally Rodgers is again under center for the Jets here at home and i am expecting a big game. However, no way I am laying nearly 7 points with the Jets here considering the way their defense has looked. So the play here is the over as New York is going to move the ball better at home but even knowing that the Patriots are a run-heavy offense is not going to help the Jets D here. They are just out of sorts so far this season and the Pats can open things up a bit here too with Brissett getting more comfortable under center. On the other side of the ball the Patriots have had some issues on pass defense based on yardage allowed through the air. This one sets up well for the veteran QB Rodgers to enjoy some success against the Pats defensive weakness while the powerful ground game of the Patriots will knife right through a struggling Jets run defense. Couple that with a very low total to work with here along with good weather here and I will not hesitate to get involved in this one. 3% OVER 38 -116 in New York Jets