3% Rotation #311: CFB Friday 3% OVER 52 -120 in Oregon Ducks vs Michigan State Spartans @ 9 ET - With my tough breaks on tight games continuing (4 easy wins Friday and admittedly the 5th play was bad play but the 6th play was the one tight game I had and was tough loss in MLB as Brewers gave up 4 top 9th) I am playing this one carefully. What I mean by that is I don't want to get burned if this total lands on exactly 52 because I have had a knack recently for getting burned on tight games. So I am selecting the alternate total option here and laying a little extra juice to have the over at 52 at a -120 price. This is available as the “alternate total” at DraftKings as an example. Of course by the time you are reading this the total could have moved higher or lower but I want to be transparent about why I selected this option at the time of this posting. In any event, I do look for this one to get into the 60s. The Ducks had 28 points at the half last week but then took their foot off the gas. The Spartans had a couple fumbles in the red zone in the first half of their loss to Ohio State last week so their final score was a bit deceiving and the game could have played out quite differently. Ironically, the Ducks have those same Buckeyes on deck in a huge match-up for next week. That said, I would not be surprised if this impacts the defensive focus and intensity for Oregon in this one. Look for Michigan State to enjoy some success offensively but, of course, the Ducks are favored by about 24 points here with good reason! Looking for a 44-20 type game or at least in the 41-17 range. Oregon scoring 40 ppg last 3 games but also did allow 34 in most recent home game. Michigan State has trended under this season but I do like the fact that they averaged scoring 29 ppg last 3 games before that ugly loss to Ohio State. I know this stretch included an outclassed foe that the Spartans faced in that 3-game stretch but it does help the confidence of the offense. Michigan State had 21 first downs in the loss at Boston College and they scored 28 ppg in starting the season 3-0 prior to that loss to the Eagles. I am not sold on this Oregon defense being fantastic and so the Spartans should move the ball some here but they can not stop the Ducks potent offense either. 3% OVER 52 -120 in Oregon