2% Take UNLV (#193)

Plain and simple: I have lived in Las Vegas since 1998.  The state of the UNLV football program RIGHT NOW heading into Barry Odom’s second year on the job is better than at any point over the last 27 football seasons that I’ve been following this program closely.  The Rebels have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team again in 2024, just like they were in 2023.

UNLV won nine games last year (most wins since the Randall Cunningham season in 1984) and reached the Mountain West Championship Game for the first time in the history of the program. They led the conference in scoring; returning an elite level receiving corps and the Rebels best offensive line in decades.  Defensively, UNLV has upgraded their secondary fairly dramatically through the transfer portal and they return the vast majority of their solid front seven.  No surprise here if defensive minded Odom creates a nasty stop unit in 2024.

Houston, on the other hand, is in complete rebuild mode under first year head coach Willie Fritz. Dana Holgorsen did not leave the cupboards stocked for the Cougars program, and Fritz didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first two years at Tulane, winning only nine games (combined) -- he’s got time to fix things.  This line is low for a reason -- expect the Cougs to be in a dogfight just to win this game SU, let alone winning it by any sort of margin.  Take the points!  Take UNLV

Line Parameter: 2% at +3.5 or higher, 1.5% at +3 or lower