3% Take Kentucky (#176)

I have no hesitation laying points in Week 1 of college football, especially with teams that can cover pointspreads by handing off the football with a big second half lead.  Mark Stoops Wildcats certainly fall into this category.

In the ‘new’ SEC, Kentucky is an afterthought.  That said, this has been a winning program for the better part of the last decade -- they’ve gone bowling in seven straight ‘normal’ seasons (sorry, I’m throwing out everything from the COVID year (2020) at this stage).

All Stoops has done in Week 1 against weaker non-conference foes is win games and cover pointspreads. Last year they covered -25 against Ball State not with a kneeldown, but with a 30 yard TD run in the closing seconds -- Stoops knows what the alumni want when it comes to ATS results. Kentucky covered vs. Miami-O in their 2022 opener, vs. Louisiana - Monroe in 2021, and vs. a good Toledo team in 2019: 4-0 ATS in these Week 1 ‘blowout’ spots, an under-the-radar angle worth riding again here.

Make no mistake about it -- the Wildcats should be pretty darn good again in 2024.  Their offensive line has 156 career starts returning, primed to blow weaker teams like Southern Miss off the ball, setting the stage for big gainer after big gainer on the ground in the second half.  They’ve got an elite QB room with a trio of Top 10 prospects, all of whom are veterans -- if the starter gets pulled with a big lead, the backup should be every bit as good.  Defensively, the Wildcats return ten starters from a defense that didn’t allow more than 17 points in any of their three ‘opening the season’ non-conference games in 2023; primed for similar success in 2024.

Southern Miss has fallen on hard times in the Will Hall era.  Their track record under Hall in these early season ‘paycheck’ games isn’t pretty, losing 66-13 at Florida State last year, 30-7 at Miami-FL the year before, 63-14 at Alabama in 2021,  and 0-2 SU/ATS at ‘Bama and Mississippi State in 2019; just 1-4 ATS in those contests. This team is NOT primed to compete with the big boys; 2-5 ATS as a double digit underdog last year and severely outclassed here.  They’ve got three ‘winnable’ games on tap after this one; I’m expecting Hall to empty the benches relatively early when things go south here.  Chalk worth laying!  Take Kentucky

Line Parameter: 4% at -27.5 or lower, 3% at -28 or higher