3% Take Baltimore (#451)

John Harbaugh is my #1 ‘bet on’ coach for Week 1 of the NFL season.  The results do not lie.  The Ravens covered -9.5 vs playoff bound Houston in Week 1 last year.  They beat the Jets by 15 in 2022.  In fact, Baltimore is 7-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 dating back to 2016, holding all seven teams they beat to ten points or less with six of those seven wins coming by 15 points or more -- blowouts!  And it’s surely worth noting the ‘asterisk’ on their only loss -- on Monday Night Football in the first night with fans at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas after the pandemic; a game where Baltimore led by a TD twice in the fourth quarter and fumbled the ball away in OT.  No shame in that….

Harbaugh as an underdog is worth noting too.  Excluding ‘resting starters in the regular season finale’ games, Harbaugh has been remarkably adept at cashing tickets catching points.  3-0 ATS last year, including outright upsets at San Francisco and at Cincinnati; 17-4 ATS as an underdog or pick ‘em since 2018.  That’s a STRONG track record for a coach and his team in spots like this one.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs lost SU as favorites on opening day to Detroit last year.  They opened the season 2-4 ATS in 2022; 0-3 ATS in 2021 -- it’s not about hot starts for a team that expects to be playing in January and February; two time defending Super Bowl champs.

This has been a competitive series: 5-5 SU in the last ten meetings.  The underdog has been the way to bet these: 5-0 ATS in the last five tries -- every meeting between Harbaugh and Reid since 2018 has been an Underdog cash, including the underdog Chiefs winning SU in Baltimore last January on their way to the Super Bowl.  Make no mistake about it -- this is a meaningful Game 1 ‘playoff revenge’ scenario for the underdog here.  At +3, this is a clear ‘positive expectation’ wager for this bettor!  Take the Ravens.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower