3% Take Hawaii (#204)

The betting markets have crashed on Timmy Chang’s Warriors after their sluggish showing in their opener last week; never sniffing a pointspread cover as 40 point favorites against FCS Delaware State.  Don’t be fooled by that outcome -- QB Brayden Schrager wasn’t sharp early in his 2024 debut, and his team had only one offensive score on their six first half drives. That said, Schrager found his touch after halftime, guiding the team on three TD drives in five tries.  And Hawaii has already gotten the rust out with that season opener.  Failing to cover as a big favorite really doesn’t affect how I’m going to power rate a team stepping up in class instead of stepping down.  Nor should we forget that Hawaii was clearly looking past that game, gearing up for THIS game against UCLA.

The Bruins are primed for an ugly season in 2024.  Chip Kelly did NOT leave the cupboard full for first year first time head coach Deshaun Foster -- UCLA’s recruiting had not been up to par in recent offseasons.  The fact that Kelly simply walked away to be Ohio State’s offensive coordinator cannot be considered a good sign for this program.  In particular, the Bruins lack size, talent and depth in the trenches, not primed to dominate the line of scrimmage.  In addition, their secondary has all kinds of questions, bad news against a Hawaii team primed to fire away downfield again and again. This UCLA team is a false favorite, plain and simple!  Take Hawaii.

Line Parameter: 3% at +14 or higher, 2.5% at +13.5 or lower