3% Take Las Vegas (#471)

Yes, the Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh; a coach with a strong track record at Stanford, San Francisco and Michigan in his last three head coaching stops.  And the Chargers have an elite QB in Justin Herbert. But make no mistake about it -- LA is a .500 level football team, at best, not a squad primed to be laying more than a field goal on opening day as they break in their new head coach and new coordinators on both sides of the football.

This Chargers team suffered massive offseason losses, up against the salary cap after re-signing Herbert (no longer on his cheap rookie deal).  Their receiving corps is loaded with question marks, their OL has been rebuilt. Defensively, this team allowed the third highest net yards per pass attempt in the league last year; a secondary that doesn’t look all that much better on paper this year.

Eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less -- one tight, competitive game after the next.  Only one of those ten meetings saw a favorite of higher than -3 cover the pointspread.  Week 1 divisional underdogs are a ‘positive expectation’ wager long term.  The Raiders pulled the road upset on opening day in Denver last year (against another big name coach making his debut). They went 3-0 ATS as road underdogs down the stretch under Antonio Pierce, including an outright road upset at the Super Bowl champs in KC.  Vegas is going with the veteran QB Gardner Minshew; a veteran presence that is exactly what I want from my underdogs on opening day.  Grab the +3.5’s now; not convinced they’ll still be here by kickoff.  Take the Raiders.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3.5 or higher, 2.5% at +3, no action at +2.5 or lower