3% Take Florida (#186)

I don’t trust Mario Cristobal’s teams stepping up in class on opening day against a hungry -- desperate -- opponent.  Yes, on paper, Miami is loaded.  But Cristobal’s team was loaded last year on their way to a 7-6 record.  Cristobal is 8-17 ATS as Miami’s head coach, picking up right where he left off at Oregon (zero winning ATS seasons as a favorite in his four year tenure with the Ducks) and even back to his tenure at Florida International (3-7 ATS as a favorite in his last two years for the Golden Panthers). And despite the talent Cristobal has accumulated on this roster, Miami still has all kinds of questions against a team that won’t be outclassed against them, especially in the secondary -- bad news when trying to preserve leads on opening day. 

Much like Mike Norvell at Florida State -- a ‘can’t miss’ coach who -- despite their opening day loss - transformed the Seminoles back into an elite program by his third season on the job, Billy Napier is undergoing a similar transformation in Gainesville. Like Norvell (3-6, then 5-7), Napier’s first two years with his new team weren’t pretty (6-7, then 5-7).  Last year, this team was MUCH better than their record would indicate - a brutal schedule, a negative turnover margin & plenty of bad luck in tight games.  That was then, this is now.  The Gators return a boatload of talent, including a senior QB with 32 career starts under his belt and a loaded front seven on defense.

Th Gators are 5-2 ATS as home underdogs since 2018, and they’re 7-4 ATS catching points under Napier in non-bowl games.  They close out the season like this: Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State -- as brutal as it gets.  That said, I expect the Gators to be relevant down the stretch; a ‘bet-on’ team to open the new campaign.  Take the points, not the moneyline - no surprise here if this one comes down to the wire with a tight finish!  Take Florida

Line Parameter: 3% at +1.5 or higher, 2% at +1 or lower