3% Take LSU (#217)

There’s one legitimate matchup edge for LSU in this ballgame, likely to give USC fits from start to finish. The Tigers have a truly elite offensive line with 111 career starts returning and NFL caliber talent at every position.  USC’s defensive front is not primed to match up well with a bunch of elite 320 pounders. The Trojans defensive front is undersized.  They got pushed around all year last year and the year before and the year before that -- 160+ rushing yards per game allowed in each of those three seasons.  And it’s not like their linebacking corps is loaded with NFL caliber talent either.  LSU is primed to control the line of scrimmage, pound the rock on the ground and wear down a USC defense that simply can’t be trusted even with a new coordinator D’Anton Lynn.

LSU’s defense was a disappointment last year, true.  That said, with highly touted new coordinator Blake Baker coming from Missouri this offseason the reports out of Baton Rouge have been eye opening; a defense that still has plenty of elite talent primed to dominate from Day 1.  The Tigers have lost as a favorite on opening day in each of the last four seasons.  This year feels different.  I certainly won’t criticize Brian Kelly for stepping up in class on opening day -- this program is used to those step up games to open the season, with three of those four losses coming at -3.5 or lower.  Lincoln Riley on opening day has been -41.5, -18.5, -22, -27.5, -31, -32.5 and -31 on opening day as a head coach at Oklahoma and USC; nary a step-up game in his Week 1 history.  I don’t expect him to schedule another one anytime soon after LSU smacks them around tonight.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take LSU

Line Parameter: 3% at -4 or lower, 2.5% at -4.5 or higher