4% Take Oregon State (#393)

It’s been an ugly start for the Mountain West Conference (with the notable exception of UNLV). Boise State’s defense gave up 45 points. Hawaii couldn’t move the ball against UCLA, blowing the game late.  Colorado State lost 52-0, Fresno managed only 10 points in their loss while Wyoming lost by six TD’s as a one TD underdog.  I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Mountain West is anything but ‘bet against’ again this week.

San Diego State won ten games or more five times between 2015 and 2021; an elite ‘Group of 5’ program. That was then, this is now.  The end of the Brady Hoke era wasn’t pretty; first year, first time head coach Sean Lewis will have his work cut out for him to get the Aztecs anywhere near the level they were playing at only three years ago.  This is not an offense primed to light up the scoreboard in their first season transitioning to a fast pace spread attack; a far cry from what they’ve played (and recruited too) for the last two decades.

These two teams met last year and it wasn’t pretty for the Aztecs offense: only 2.1 yards per rush and six sacks allowed.  This year’s Aztecs team lacks experience, returning only ten starters, only four of them on the defensive side of the football. Oregon State lost the turnover battle and missed field goals.  They still won the game by three scores; rushing for six yards per carry and passing for 9.5 yards per pass attempt against San Diego State’s D.

Oregon State is an afterthought in the betting world after their conference collapsed and their coach bolted for a fat Big 10 contract.  There’s legitimate value backing non-descript teams like the Beavers early in the season - this program hasn’t fallen through the floor after winning 18 games in the final two years of the Jonathan Smith era.  Take Oregon State.

Line Parameter: 4% at -6.5 or lower, 3% at -7 or higher