3% Take Michigan State (#343)

I watched Michigan State closely last week.  The final score against FAU was 16-10, the box score wasn’t pretty either.  And yet I came away from that game thinking Michigan State was very much a ‘bet-on’ team for three reasons.

First, their defense was spectacular, start to finish.  Tom Herman’s Owls have playmakers, but the Spartans defense controlled the flow, start to finish, holding FAU to four yards per play and 2-15 on third downs. 

Second, new Sparty QB Aiden Chiles was far better than his stats would indicate: 10-24 for 114 yards with two interceptions and no TD’s. Michigan State was aggressive; repeatedly taking deep shots that they just didn’t connect.  It’s not a systemic problem.  Seven different receivers caught a pass; Chiles and the Spartans offense is an undervalued commodity this week thanks to bad ‘box score’ numbers.

Third, we’re talking about a completely different role for Sparty here, going from double digit favorites to more than a TD underdogs.  In fact, it’s a classic ‘buy low, sell high’ kind of spot.  Just because a team didn’t sniff a cover as a favorite one week doesn’t mean they won’t sniff a cover as an underdog the following week, especially given their lack of market respect.  Head coach Jonathan Smith went 13-7 ATS as a road underdog at Oregon State; a role I’m comfortable backing him in.

Maryland is on the other end of the ‘buy low, sell high’ spectrum this week after a 50-7 win against UConn in their opener.  UConn’s defensive team speed was problematic in that game, to put it mildly; not an issue for Michigan State this week.  I’ve got big questions about the Terps offensive line, bad news against a stout Sparty defensive front.  And it’s certainly not like Maryland has the defensive pedigree themselves to be trusted laying more than a TD in their conference opener.  Too many points!  Take Michigan State.

Line Parameter: 3% at +7.5 or higher, 2% at +7 or lower.