3% Take BYU – SMU OVER (#301-302)

I’m confident that SMU is going to be able to move the football and punch in touchdowns against BYU’s suspect defense.  The Mustangs struggled early in their opener against Nevada, needing a big fourth quarter rally just to win the game SU as nearly four TD road favorites.  But with the game on the line, this offense moved the ball up and down the field, just like they did last week against an FCS foe; a game that SMU led 42-7 at halftime. 

BYU’s defense was abysmal on the road last year; particularly against opponents with elite speed, like SMU. They allowed 31, 38, 44, 35, 37 and 40 points in their six road tilts.  Frankly, it wasn’t all that much better at home; the second consecutive season in which Kalani Sitake’s defense allowed more than four TD’s a game.  This year’s stop unit doesn’t look all that much improved; bad news against an opponent with ample ‘quick strike TD’ potential. Mustangs QB Preston Stone has ‘NFL potential’ wideouts to throw to and an elite offensive line to protect him. Like I wrote earlier, expect SMU to score early and often; an offense that’s been at 37+ points per game in each of the last five seasons.

I debated side vs total here, and wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to just bet SMU or just bet the SMU team total Over.  That said, I think BYU’s offense is very much an undervalued commodity in the betting markets last year.  Remember, this offense completely fell apart in 2023, scoring 14 points or less in five different games, including three of their last five down the stretch.  Prior to last year, they had averaged more than four TD’s per game in each of the previous four years; this year the offensive line has been rebuilt after last year’s injury riddled disaster.  SMU’s secondary is vulnerable and they graduated three of their four starters on the defensive line.  Expect the Cougars, like the Mustangs, to move the football throughout, good news for Over bettors like us!  Take the OVER

Line Parameter: 3% at 57.5 or lower, 2% at 58 or higher