3% Take Temple (#327)

I watched Temple battle in the trenches with Oklahoma last weekend and I couldn’t have been more impressed with the Owls defensive front.  Yes, the final score was 51-3; a complete non-competitive blowout.  But that had everything to do with Temple finishing -6 in turnovers.  Note this: Oklahoma went 1-12 on third downs in that game.  They finished with just 5.4 yards per pass attempt.  After going up 14-0, the Sooners next drives went: Punt, FG. FG, TD, FG (six yard drive) TD, Punt, FG, Punt.  When bottom feeders get run over, those drive charts tend to look like this: TD, TD, TD, TD, TD.  Holding Oklahoma to a single third down conversion was insanely impressive, it really was. The betting markets are clearly coming to a different conclusion about Temple's performance…..

Navy doesn’t have a ‘we’re going to force a bunch of turnovers’ level of defense.  The Midshipmen have averaged 22 points per game or less in each of the last four seasons, not a ‘let’s lay double digits with them’ type of squad.  In that four year span, Navy has covered exactly ONE game as home favorites – they beat East Carolina 10-0 last November at -2.5.  They didn’t cover in their opener against Bucknell last week either!

Temple’s last visit to Navy in 2022 was a 27-20 OT thriller where Navy didn’t sniff a cover at -14.  Last year, Temple beat Navy 32-18.  There was nothing fraudulent about the win, as the Owls outgained the Middies by nearly 200 yards; winning by two TD’s as +7 underdogs despite a -4 turnover margin in the game.  Navy was held to three yards per carry, dominated up front.  From what I saw of Temple last week, I would not be surprised in the slightest to see the Owls do it again.  Too many points!  Take Temple 

Line Parameter: 3% at +11.5 or higher, 2.5% at +11 or lower