3% Take Texas (#319)

Texas is as talented as any team in the country – they’re not ranked #3 by accident.  Steve Sarkisian has been an elite road coach – the Longhorns are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven road tilts.  Six of those seven road victories came by a TD or more; five of them by double digit margins.  Last year, right here in Week 2, Texas went to Alabama and won SU by double digits. They’re every bit as hungry this year, and their motivation level is off the charts, a chance to knock off the defending national champs in Ann Arbor.  Unlike Michigan this year, Texas has NFL caliber talent at nearly every position on both sides of the football; truly a loaded roster.  And it’s surely worth noting that this offense consistently worked against elite defenses last year ;scoring 26 points or more in every single game while averaging 36 ppg. 

This isn’t 2023, and Michigan isn’t going to be competing for the national title again in 2024 – don’t confuse this year’s Wolverines with last year’s squad.  Michigan’s defense is still excellent.  The offense, however, as we clearly saw last week against Fresno, is still very much a work in progress.  That’ll happen when you only return two starters on offense. Last week, former walk-on Davis Warren threw for only 118 yards against Fresno, not seeing the field clearly. Their offensive line couldn’t control the line of scrimmage – 269 total yards – bad news this week against that stout Longhorns defense.  It’s also worth noting that Sherrone Moore coached three games last year when Jim Harbaugh was suspended and one game this year.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in those contests, an emerging ‘first year first time head coach’ trend worth riding.  Texas is big road chalk here for good reason!  Take Texas.

Line Parameter: 3% at -7 or lower, 2% at -7.5 or higher