3% Take Arizona (#467)

Kyler Murray has shown flashes of NFL brilliance.  As recently as 2021, he led Arizona to 11 wins and a playoff spot.  He’s dealt with major injuries the last two years and the roster surrounding him hasn’t been very good: back to back 4-13 seasons since that 11 win campaign.  This year feels very different for the Cardinals

Murray spent the offseason “practically living at the Cardinals training facility.”  This was the first fully healthy offseason of his NFL career with the same offensive coordinator as last year; something I expect to pay real dividends in 2024.  Every quote coming out of this locker room has been positive. From all indications, this offense has real breakout potential.

Arizona certainly has more talent than they did last year, on both sides of the football.  First round pick Marvin Harrison Jr and last year’s third rounder Michael Wilson are a pair of legit playmakers at WR.  The offense finished #4 in rushing last year, averaging 139 ypg on the ground, even with Murray still finding his footing after a torn ACL that cost him the first nine games.  They picked up solid veteran linemen Jonah Williams from Cincinnati and Evan Brown from Seattle in free agency; last year’s #1 pick Paris Johnson-- off a great rookie year -- is expected to flip to left tackle.  They drafted ‘plug and play’ OL from both Texas and Illinois; a team with decent OL depth for the first time in recent memory.  The Cardinals poured offseason resources into their defense, signing veteran free agents like Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols to man the DL and Mack Wilson at LB.  Safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are both pro bowl caliber players.  CB Sean Murphy Bunting was another key free agent signee, and the Cardinals have three rookie CB’s from last year all returning.  I’m expecting a significant improvement in 2024.

Buffalo has new coordinators on both offense and defense since last year at this time.  They suffered massive personnel losses in the offseason after paying QB Josh Allen, leaving them with salary cap woes. Starting WR’s Steph Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone as is starting center Mitch Morse.  Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are gone.  So is CB Tre’Davious White and leading sacker Leonard Floyd.  Their special teams are loaded with question marks - kicking, punting and returns. It’s surely worth noting that four of the five Bills losses last year came to non-playoff teams -- Buffalo’s history under McDermott is littered with ‘outright upset’ losses against lesser foes.    They lost outright as chalk on opening day last year and lost outright in their most recent try as home chalk on opening day as well.  Live dog here!  Take the Cardinals.

Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower