3% Take the New York Mets (#971) (listed pitchers)

Since the All Star Break, in series where the Blue Jays have been tied 1-1 heading into the ‘rubber match’ series finale, fading Toronto has cashed seven winning bets in eight tries, an 88% cash rate.  The Blue Jays are in last place in large part because of their inability to close out series like this one.  I’ve got the Mets at 8-0 off a loss since their last losing streak – nearly a month ago – and they’re coming off a loss last night.  Sean Manaea has been a legitimate ace for New York.  They’re 5-0 in his last five starts, 12-2 in his last 14! Blue Jays rookie Bowden Francis has put up some impressive numbers, but the advanced metrics clearly show that he’s primed for a correction.  Even if Francis pitches well, the Blue Jays bullpen is not to be trusted. Short chalk worth laying!  Take the Mets.

Line Parameter: 3% at -135 or lower, 2.5% at -136 or higher.