3% Take Indianapolis (#231)

The Packers run defense was a problem last year and it was an embarrassment in their 2024 opener under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.  The Packers pass defense was a question mark coming into 2024; certainly living up to expectations in that regard against the Eagles last week – Philly punted only twice and hung 34 points on Green Bay’s defense. 

The Packers offense is every bit as questionable as their defense this week.  Jordan Love is a star, with a 37-13 TD-INT ratio last year.  But from all indications, Love isn’t going to play this week.  Backup QB Sean Clifford didn’t make the team, re-signed as the backup QB this week.  It looks like Malik Wiliis as the Packers starting QB on Sunday, less than three weeks since they traded a seventh round draft pick for him.  His quote: “It’s like transferring schools.  It’s (NFL) football but it’s different terminology and a different system.”

At no point in his career has Malik Willis looked like a capable NFL starting QB.  His next NFL touchdown pass will be his first.  In limited time as the Titans backup, Willis looked lost: 3 INT’s and 15 sacks in only 67 pass attempts.  I watched him in August with Tennessee and he looked every bit as ‘bet-against’ this year as he has in recent seasons.  There’s a reason the Packers are home dogs this week – with this defense and this quarterback, Green Bay is a vulnerable team in early season play.

Indy was choppy last week, and their defense, too, struggled against the Texans.  That said, Indy has their QB of the future in Anthony Richardson, who made some legitimately jaw dropping throws last week.  Jonathan Taylor is poised to abuse the Packers on the ground – the Colts averaged seven yards per play last week vs a defense better than the one they’ll face here.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take the Colts.

Line Parameter: 3% at -3 or lower, 1% at -3.5 or higher