3% Take Central Michigan (#117)

Illinois is not a ‘we’re gonna blow ‘em out’ kind of team.  Last year, their biggest margin of victory in any of their five wins was a six point margin of victory against 4-8 Florida Atlantic.  If we take out two ‘last game of the regular season against worn down, no depth Northwestern’ victories in 2022 and 2021, Illinois has a grand total of four wins by a big enough margin to cover this pointspread in Brett Bielema’s four years on the job.

The Illini are in a dangerous ‘low focus’ sandwich spot this week.  They’re coming off an impressive upset over Kansas last week, a huge national TV battle.  Up next? Their Big 10 opener at Nebraska; another much bigger game than this one.  This is a ‘win and get off the field’ type of game for Bielema and company; not a game where we can expect four quarters of focus and domination.

Central Michigan has been a feisty underdog throughout the Jim McElwain era.  They covered in defeat at Notre Dame last year; at Penn State and Oklahoma State in 2022 and at Missouri in 2021. At +15 or higher on the highway, McElwain’s teams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten tries.  Coming off a dismal six turnover, ten penalty performance in a blowout loss to Florida International last week, we can ‘buy low’ on the Chippewas in a ‘max focus’ spot for the road underdog.  Too many points!  Take Central Michigan.

Line Parameter: 3% at +18 or higher, 2% at +17.5 or lower