3% Take South Florida (#179)

Here’s what I wrote about Southern Miss prior to Week 1 when they got annihilated at Kentucky in a game that was called early in the third quarter due to thunderstorms with Kentucky leading 31-0. 

“Southern Miss has fallen on hard times in the Will Hall era.  Their track record under Hall in these early season ‘paycheck’ games isn’t pretty, losing 66-13 at Florida State last year, 30-7 at Miami-FL the year before, 63-14 at Alabama in 2021, and 0-2 SU/ATS at ‘Bama and Mississippi State in 2019; just 1-4 ATS in those contests. This team is NOT primed to compete with the big boys; 2-5 ATS as a double digit underdog last year and severely outclassed here.  Chalk worth laying!”

My opinion about the Golden Eagles hasn’t changed, even though the wager on opening night ended up being ‘no action’ because the game didn’t go 55 minutes.    This is not a defense primed to get stops; this is not an offense primed to trade points; a team to fade when stepping up in class.  And it’s surely worth noting that Southern Miss went 0-3 ATS last year as a home underdog; now just 3-7 ATS in that role in Will Hall’s four years on the job.

USF battled with Alabama for 50+ minutes last week but fell apart down the stretch, allowing three late TD’s in what had been a one score game.  Head coach Alex Golesh has already turned the page:

"I would attribute a majority of it to us not being able to run the ball (on first down). You can't run it on first down. You can't run it on second down. So now you're in a tough third-down spot. We didn't do a good job of getting ourselves into third-and-3 at the 3-yard line or third-and-2 at the 2-yard line … where you could throw it or run it. And overall, we hardly ran any plays on third-and-medium or third-and-short. We never even got to those plays on our sheet……..We just go back to our process and worry about the process … not worry about, honestly, the fact that we lost that game.  Let's worry about what happened in the last six minutes and let's build on what happened in the first 54 minutes that made us successful. But it's always concentrating on the process.”

After facing Alabama last week, USF will have size and speed edges this week, as well as the hunger we look for in these non-conference affairs.  I’m impressed with dual threat QB Byrum Brown and the skill position talent around him. After struggling in the red zone last week (three field goals from inside the 35 yard line) coach Golesh – who made red zone execution a major point of offseason emphasis – is expecting touchdowns this week; exactly what chalk layers in this game wanted to hear. Fade the bottom feeder!  Take USF.

Line Parameter: 3% at -11.5 or lower, 2.5% at -12 or higher