3% Take Arizona on the MONEYLINE (#284)

Let me start with an extended excerpt from what I wrote about the Cardinals last week in their pointspread covering loss at Buffalo – a competitive road loss that looks even better now after the Bills annihilation of Miami on Thursday Night. 

“Kyler Murray has shown flashes of NFL brilliance.  As recently as 2021, he led Arizona to 11 wins and a playoff spot.  He’s dealt with major injuries the last two years and the roster surrounding him hasn’t been very good: back to back 4-13 seasons since that 11 win campaign.  This year feels very different for the Cardinals  Murray spent the offseason “practically living at the Cardinals training facility.”  This was the first fully healthy offseason of his NFL career with the same offensive coordinator as last year; something I expect to pay real dividends in 2024.  Every quote coming out of this locker room has been positive. From all indications, this offense has real breakout potential.

Arizona certainly has more talent than they did last year, on both sides of the football.  First round pick Marvin Harrison Jr and last year’s third rounder Michael Wilson are a pair of legit playmakers at WR.  The offense finished #4 in rushing last year, averaging 139 ypg on the ground, even with Murray still finding his footing after a torn ACL that cost him the first nine games.  They picked up solid veteran linemen Jonah Williams from Cincinnati and Evan Brown from Seattle in free agency; last year’s #1 pick Paris Johnson-- off a great rookie year -- is expected to flip to left tackle.  They drafted ‘plug and play’ OL from both Texas and Illinois; a team with decent OL depth for the first time in recent memory.  The Cardinals poured offseason resources into their defense, signing veteran free agents like Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols to man the DL and Mack Wilson at LB.  Safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are both pro bowl caliber players.  CB Sean Murphy Bunting was another key free agent signee, and the Cardinals have three rookie CB’s from last year all returning.  I’m expecting a significant improvement in 2024.”

I continue to look at Arizona as an undervalued commodity even after their Week 1 loss, blowing a 17-0 lead in the process.  That’s not the case for the injury riddled Rams.  They just put three starters on IR – two offensive lineman (Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila) as well as last year’s breakout WR star Puka Nacua.  Four more starters weren’t healthy to practice on Thursday, including a third OL, G Kevin Dotson.  Safety Quentin Lake -- who led the team in tackles against Detroit, playing every defensive snap – has been limited in practice, as has a FOURTH starting offensive lineman, tackle Rob Havenstein, who sat last week.  Starting cornerback Kobie Durant is hurt as well. With LA coming off an OT loss on Sunday Night with their banged up roster, an immobile QB in Matthew Stafford and a defense that’s just finding their footing in the post Aaron Donald era, this is a game I expect Arizona to win.  In this pointspread range, I’d rather take ‘em on the moneyline than worry about points.  Take the Cardinals.

Line Parameter: 3% at -125 or lower, 2.5% at -126 or higher