3% Take Minnesota (#911) (List Lopez for the Twins)

The Guardians have been playing mediocre baseball since the All Star Break, 28-27 in their last 55 games while averaging fewer than four runs scored per game during that span. They’re fat and happy off back-2-back wins over the Rays in their last two games; splitting the series despite scoring only 11 runs in the four games combined.  They used all of their ‘high leverage’ bullpen arms closing out yesterday’s win. Cleveland is a home dog today for good reason!

I’m listing Twins starter Pablo Lopez here – he’s allowed zero earned runs four times in his last five trips to the hill, with 19 strikeouts compared to only two walks in his two previous September starts.  Minnesota is 4-0 in his last four starts, 12-4 in his last 16, consistently winning for their ace.  Minnesota’s key bullpen arms are rested and ready off yesterday’s blowout win; big bats Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have both been reinstated off the IL this past week, and there’s legitimate urgency for the road team after scuffling through the first two weeks of September.  Short road chalk worth laying! Take the Twins.

Line Parameter: 3% at -120 or lower, 2.5% at -121 or higher