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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Minnesota Twins

Event:
(977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Minnesota Twins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
August 28, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-125
Play:
2% – Atlanta Braves -125 C Sale (LHP), D Festa (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

There's some interesting pricing in place for this game, and we don't necessarily agree with the market. The Braves are a consensus -150 favorite for the first five innings, which makes sense with Chris Sale on the mound. Atlanta is only -125 for the full game, which also makes sense because the Twins have the better bullpen...when fully available. That probably won't be the case on Wednesday as the first two games of this series have taken a lot out of the Twins' bullpen. Bailey Ober only went 2.0 innings on Monday, forcing three relievers to throw 32+ pitches. Minnesota used six relievers in yesterday's 10-inning contest, and star closer Jhoan Duran gave up four runs. Twins' starter David Festa has been a nice addition to the rotation, but Minnesota has been closely monitoring his innings. The 24-year-old has not gone past 5.0 innings in any of his eight MLB outings. Atlanta's Chris Sale has gone at least 7.0 innings in three of his last six starts. Unlike Festa, Sale can probably go deep into this game and help preserve the Braves' bullpen. In 13 road starts this season, Sale is 6-3 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Sale has only allowed more than two runs one time in his last 13 starts, dating back to the beginning of June. In our opinion, there's too big of a gap between the Braves' full-game number and first five innings number.

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