close icon
popup icon
Free Picks
Discounts &
Get $15 Free
The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Philadelphia Phillies

Event:
(953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
August 30, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-108
Play:
2% – (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Philadelphia Phillies Total Over 8.0 (-108) R Lopez (RHP), R Suarez (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

We don't envy the MLB schedule makers' job because it certainly is not easy putting together 162-game schedules for 30 different teams. Sometimes, things can get a little quirky. The Phillies and Braves are playing their third series in the last seven weeks, so these teams have gotten to know each other quite well over the summer. Both lineups have over 100 plate appearances against the opposing pitcher, and Atlanta's Reynaldo López did pitch in each of those first two series that we just mentioned. López has been a box score darling this season, constantly evading regression as it looms over his head. His expected ERA (4.23) is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (2.02). His strikeout rate has dropped from 29.9-percent last year to 25.3-percent this year. His expected batting average has risen from .216 last year to .254 this year. His expected weighted on-base average (.320) is over 40 points higher than his actual weighted on-base average (.278). His average exit velocity is up almost two miles per hour from last year to this year. The regression cloud has been swirling above his head for a long time, and this third meeting with the Phillies looks like a great spot for it to burst. On the other side, the Braves tagged Ranger Suárez for five runs on six hits with two walks in 5.0 innings on July 6. This will be the Phillies' 11th-straight day with a game, and their bullpen is going through a shake-up right now. This is also Atlanta's 11th-straight day with a game, and the Braves' bullpen blew a 4-0 lead on Thursday. Both pitching staffs will be vulnerable in this series.

Back to Top
close popup icon